Well, it's difficult to predict. Big business and industry along with the business and political elites seem to be strong supporters of the 'Remain in EU' vote while small businesses and lay people seem to be the bulk of the supporters of the 'Leave EU' bloc. And, a lot of the multi-national companies (read Japanese, Korean, American etc) which operate in Britain support the Remain vote. They save a lot on taxes this way.
It seems to be 50-50 right now. There does exist a 'strong' popular wish to leave EU and all that it has come to represent. This has become a fight between the 'little people', as one writer put it, and the 'establishment'. Remains to be seen who actually will prevail on June 23rd, the day of the referendum.
Brexit Referendum
Why did it come to this? Why is 'popular' sentiment against EU? There are broadly three reasons:
1. Brash and arrogant EU bureaucracy based in Brussels whose policies don't help small businesses in Britain. Remember, Britain is a nation of small businesses. EU is seen as not being a friend of
small businesses For ex.: British cider makers face being
crippled by Brussels bureaucrats
2. Poor countries such as Greece are constantly living beyond their means expecting their richer EU counterparts to bail them out, repeatedly. For ex.: The UK
pays more into the EU budget than it gets back.
In 2015, Britain paid £13 billion to the EU budget.
3. The borderless EU has allowed economic migrants from poorer countries such as Greece and Portugal and some of the newer East European member countries to migrate to well off Britain, Germany etc for jobs. This is leading to
resentment. In fact, curbing
migration from Eastern European EU countries is a key goal for many Britons who plan to vote to leave the EU in the referendum!
Here is a sampling of the popular sentiment as expressed on the internet regarding Brexit (the Leave campaign seems to have more support, atleast online):
But first, let's see what the protagonists on both sides are saying.
LEAVE: Is the Brexit a Modern-Day 'Peasants
Revolt'? By John Longworth, Chairman, Vote Leave Business Council
Corporate, business leaders are economically rational. They are driven by quarterly reporting, twice yearly dividends, generous end of year Executive bonuses and by the avoidance of paying tax. In other words, they are narrowly focussed and short-term in their thinking. By the same token, politicians in power rarely think beyond the next election. Anything corporates or those in power say should be viewed in this light.
The short-term horizon of the multi-national does not fit comfortably into the EU debate, which is very much about the considerable economic advantages to be had from leaving in the medium- to long-term. These benefits will manifest themselves as we profit from the lifting of the dead hand of bureaucracy from our domestic economy, from the EU constraints on business finance, the removal of the impediments to supporting our foundation industries and allow our public procurement to stimulate our economy. As we begin to gain from the ability to make our own trade deals and the many other positive measures that will make for enhanced job security in a Britain out of the EU and for a more prosperous future.
Some multi-nationals prefer an EU in which they can produce cheaply, hiding behind the EU exhaustion of rights legislation, and sell expensively, in a segmented market, while avoiding paying taxes. Many homegrown businesses who pay their taxes are naturally furious at this unfair competition. In fact, a recent report by Civitas pointed out that the those who have benefitted the most from the EU Single Market have been corporations from outside Europe, whereas Britain has benefitted the least.
More worryingly, there are Eurocrats and those in the "EU invested" business and political elite, multi-nationals and those who aspire to be on the boards of multi-nationals, who consider the "little people" to be irrelevant in this referendum debate. That the "little people" can be manipulated, that they can fool enough of the people all of the time. These are the same vested interests who sponsored the latest CBI economic scare story. Naturally, Corporates operate in the narrow world of short-term profit, whereas this vital decision regarding the EU is a medium- to long-term project in the interests of the wider business community and the nation as a whole.
What they forget is that it is the "little people"—and I consider myself amongst them—who do most of the work, pay their taxes, and underpin the consumption economy, suffer unemployment in downturns. It is the individual entrepreneurs who risk their own money and sweat blood to create most of the jobs, have all the good ideas and account for the vast majority of UK GDP. It is this merry band that will vote to leave the EU in June and be free of its shackles.
But if this is a latter day 'peasants revolt', take a lesson from the original. As Wat Tyler, the leader of the peasants, found to his cost, you cannot rely on our leaders, corporate and political, being gentle folk of the fair play kind. The establishment are ruthless in defence of their own interest.
REMAIN: Britain’s political voice depends on our role as a leading and influential member of the EU
By Kenneth Clarke, Conservative MP and co-president of the cross-party pro-European group British Influence
Whether we remain in the European Union will determine Britain’s future role in the world and the comparative success of our economy for our children and grandchildren. That is the setting in which we should consider the many questions wrapped up in this big stark choice. Unfortunately, referendums tend to be dominated by personalities and headlines.
Britain’s political voice depends on our role as a leading and influential member of the EU. If we leave, we are of less value to our allies and of less concern to our enemies. We need the strongest voice we can get in the dangerous modern world.
When EU governments are able to agree on political and economic policies, they will remain a superpower to influence the Americans, the Russians, Indians and Chinese over the coming decades. Britain on its own would resume the decline which continued through most of the 20th century.
We are in a rapidly changing global economy. Our economic base is the European single market, our largest, nearest and easiest partner. If we leave, we would have to negotiate a new trading pact. Like Norway and Switzerland we would get one, but we would have to obey EU rules on trading standards and lose any say in their development.
I leave aside policies on the environment, climate change, international crime and other issues which are pointless if not pursued on an EU scale. These are obscured at the moment by the crisis over migration and by David Cameron’s initiative to seek reforms.
Nigel Farage has persuaded too many people that we have lost control of our borders. Around two million British people live and work in other EU member states and more EU nationals are coming here because our economy is recovering well. We can negotiate a ban on those coming simply to claim benefits. EU workers who move countries are mainly young and skilled. Our economy has benefited from free movement of European labour in every study done and we do not need pointless national barriers against working Britons, Germans or Poles.
Our Border Agency must continue to tackle our long standing problem of illegal immigration, which is largely from India, Pakistan and Africa. The recent surge in migration is dominated by people from wars in which Britain has participated. Many of those who speak English or have relatives here are trying to come to Britain, so we are part of the problem. This huge crisis will only be solved by EU agreement on a fair and organised system to help genuine victims of war and to return people who are economic migrants.
The important EU reforms which we should press for are economic ones to strengthen future prosperity. We must ensure that the City of London is not disadvantaged by our non-membership of the eurozone.
We must complete the European single market, particularly in services, energy and the digital economy. We must have new EU trade agreements with the US, Japan and China. We can only negotiate those from a position of strength – with our European partners.
Pro-Europeans must strive to persuade a confused public to vote on a positive and optimistic case about the future of our nation. Fear of the modern world, nostalgic yearning for pre-World War sovereignty and the eventual break-up of Europe would be a disaster for our grandchildren.
Popular Sentiment
"As a Brit who has lived in the USA for 20 years, I have had the opportunity to work inside and outside of the EU. While both systems have their pros and cons, I still prefer a system where my economic and civil fate is not decided by an unelected band of commissioners and a barely representative European Parliament. 70% of all economic activity is generated by small and medium businesses and the EU has done it's best to make their life a nightmare for decades with petty and sometimes nonsensical regulations and red tape. What political leaders need to understand with the Brexit vote is that the people will speak. They may make the wrong decision, an uninformed decision, the right decision or any decision but the most important point is that it's THEIR decision and the elected leaders of the EU countries will have to respect it and adjust accordingly. There is a worrying lurch towards more radical political candidates like Trump, Sanders and in Europe, towards Nationalist and far-left parties. This is because the current political elites are too cosy, too complacent and too arrogant to notice that the the people are angry, that they are not being heard and that their votes are being taken for granted. When people feel that they are not being heard they turn to populists who play on their fears and prejudices. This is how Adolf Hitler got into power and we all know how that turned out. Listen to the people politicians or it could turn ugly again" ~Mark Elder
"It is interesting to note that the “little people” or the “common man” are those that all too often the “power brokers ” lose sight of. It is the “elected men” who look to their own self interest that should be focusing on the very people who gave them their trust, faith and right to govern who need to take stock of their words and actions . The Common man who elected those in the “House of Commons” and European parliament have had pretty short measure, the rhetoric from both camps has in most part bored and exasperated the general public. Our Prime Minister, Premier, should have stated his case that he believes it would be wrong to exit. Thereafter spending his time and effort ensuring that everything is done to insure a balanced flow of facts; the good and bad of staying, the good and bad of exiting. He should have a little more faith in the people who elected him to office. It is with a sense of pride that I know the people of Britain will go to the polls and cast their vote with both head and heart fully engaged. All those I have spoken to have talked about their friends, family and those in the wider community and the impact their vote will or may have on them. We can but hope that Democracy will again have its day" ~Adrian Bennett-Yard
"It has always been my belief that the EU is a political construct, with little base and in and concern for the "real world" The current desperation of politicians, both our own, and those at the top of the tree on the continent seem to bear this out. Thank you for your balanced input, John- very welcome after the vague rhetoric on both sides of what has become a very tawdry debate. Your last point is very interesting - not only have we heard the spiteful threats from our European "friends" if we were to dare to leave, but I read in a paper today that our own MPs might be able to block a Leave vote. So much for public servants serving (the people at least!)" ~Ian Waring Green
"If Remain wins this man will be our ruler: https://youtu.be/XPgiI46FCDU He bitch slapped national leaders... I suspect he has even greater contempt for Cameron. The EU is a growing utter disaster. Leaving will not be easy as it will only be a case of out of the fire into the frying pan. But it will be a start." ~Charles M Cawley
And, finally, the cartoonists are having a field day on the topic of Brexit!
